Definition

The gambler's fallacy

Also known as: monte carlo fallacy, fallacy of the maturity of chances

The mistaken belief that past independent results change the odds of what comes next. After a run of heads, it feels like tails is "due" — but a fair coin has no memory, so every flip stays an even 50/50. Streaks happen by chance and do not make the opposite outcome more likely on the next toss.


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"You are what you are today because of the choices you made yesterday, and the choices you make today will make you what you are tomorrow."
— Michael Josephson